[UC41] EV Load Growth Forecasting

Consumer Rates and Programs
Electric Vehicles (EV)
Grid Planning

A use case for estimation of increased load from EV growth and grid locations identification where the impact of this load will be concerning.

The Utility Problem

There are a variety of reasons why electric vehicles (EVs) have become more popular in recent years. One of the main reasons is the increasing concern about the environmental impact of traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles, as well as the desire to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Additionally, advances in technology have led to the development of more efficient and affordable EVs, making them a more viable option for many people.

As the number of EVs increases and will keep increasing, it can have a number of impacts on the electric grid. Some of the key impacts include:

  • Increased demand for electricity – As more EVs are charged, there will be an increased demand for electricity, particularly during peak hours and also in some locations with a higher probability of EV penetration (for example, family houses).
  • Stress on the grid – If the increased demand for electricity is not managed properly, it can put stress on the grid, leading to power outages or brownouts.
  • Need for more generation capacity – To meet the increased demand for electricity, electric utilities may need to invest in new generation capacity, such as solar or wind power, or expand existing power plants.
  • Need for more transmission and distribution infrastructure – As more EVs are charged, there may be a need for more transmission and distribution infrastructure, such as power lines and substations, to move electricity from generation sources to where it is needed.
  • Opportunities for grid balancing – On the other hand, with the growth of renewable energy sources and the implementation of smart charging systems and storage solutions, EVs can also provide opportunities for balancing the grid and making it more stable by absorbing surplus energy generated by renewable energy sources during off-peak hours.

It is a need for new infrastructure to support an increase in load. The infrastructure capacity levels, which are already strengthened by historically reduced investments in the grid, will definitely be tested by ongoing EV adoption.

Overall, the increased number of EVs on the road can have both challenges and opportunities for the electric grid, and the key is to have tools to tackle this challenge. The tools should allow for the estimation of increased load resulting from EV growth and also tools for identifying grid locations where the impact of increased load will be concerning.


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